The auto industry is moving into the 2027 model year more slowly than usual, and that is changing the buying window for shoppers.
At the end of August, just 12.4% of new-vehicle inventory was 2027 model-year, according to CarGurus data shared with Business Insider. In the same period over the past three years, roughly one-quarter of new dealership inventory had already shifted to the next model year.
Kevin Roberts, director of economic and market intelligence at CarGurus, said the transition looks similar to 2020 through 2022, when the industry was dealing with Covid-era assembly-line shutdowns and chip shortages. This year is different and less existential, he said, because 'a lot of factors all came together to create something kind of unique this year.'
The delay is not uniform across brands. Erin Keating, executive analyst at Cox Automotive, said the slowdown is being driven by big-name vehicles getting refreshed on different timelines. 'In several cases, what looks like a slowdown at the brand level is really individual models rotating,' she said. 'It's important not to read this as uniform across a brand's whole lineup.'
GM is a clear example. The Detroit automaker has redesigned the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra for 2027, with assembly of the new trucks expected to begin in October. Because those pickups are company best sellers, the later handoff keeps more 2026 models on the market.
Other high-volume models are following their own schedules. Nissan's Rogue received a 2026.5 model year, while Toyota's RAV4 got its 2026 update in calendar 2025, making a fast switch to a 2027 version less likely. Honda is also still sending fresh 2026 models to dealerships, Roberts said, while Honda told Business Insider that some of its best-selling 2027 CR-V SUVs have reached dealerships and that model-year changeover 'is not fixed to a specific month, quarter, or time of year.'
Keating said the 2027 rollout is 'picking up speed but running behind last year's schedule,' even as Kia, Cadillac, and BMW are already well into the switch.
For buyers, the timing matters. The average transaction price for a new vehicle climbed back above $50,000 in August, according to Cox Automotive data. Keating said the later transition could help 'keep prices more stable,' rather than pushing them down, because freshly designed cars often arrive with higher sticker prices.
Roberts said patient shoppers may still find a path to savings. As 2027 inventory grows, dealers will have more reason to clear out remaining 2026 models. 'Eventually you'll start to see better deals for consumers on incentives,' he said. 'The timing might be a little bit more delayed this year.'
For founders and operators watching consumer demand, the lesson is simple: supply timing still shapes pricing power. When new inventory arrives late, dealers lose some leverage on new-model markups, but they also get a longer runway to move older stock. That can keep the market from resetting too fast.
And for buyers, that is the playbook worth watching: stay patient, track incentives, and wait for the mismatch between fresh inventory and leftover stock to widen. In a market where average transaction prices are already above $50,000, timing can still be worth real money.
